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FW: Was Forensic/Cyber Crime Investigator - Now Statistical Analysis of Digital Forensic Sciences
From: "Craig Wright" <cwright () bdosyd com au>
Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 13:04:41 +1100


Hello;

I have promised that I would send a detailed list of how to calculate
statistics for court times and how this hooks into DFS. This is not
comprehensive and short of being sponsored to write a paper on this I
shall not be completing a paper on this.

SPSS v 11.0 has been used for the calculations. Alpha is set at 5%.

First The composition of courts to complete a world wide estimate (which
is actually going to be greater than the real figure seeing as 3rd world
nations will not have the same resource levels)

Court time are taken from the following countries;

USA and Canada
        1       LLMC Digital: Combined Collections

http://0-ets.umdl.umich.edu.portia.nesl.edu/cgi/t/text/text-idx?g=llmc
        2       Worldlii,       World Legal Information Institute
                http://www.worldlii.org/

Africa
        1       Worldlii,       World Legal Information Institute
                http://www.worldlii.org/

http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Africa

Asia
        1       Worldlii,       World Legal Information Institute
                http://www.worldlii.org/
                http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Asia

Europe ( and UK included )
        1       Worldlii,       World Legal Information Institute

http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Europe

Pacific Islands
        1       Worldlii,       World Legal Information Institute

http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Pacific+Islands

Australia
        1       Australasian Legal Information Institute
                http://www.austlii.edu.au
        2       NSWSC library
        3       High Court Registry

The values obtained from the sites above for the years 2000-2005 where
weighted based on the population estimates for each respective region
(census information obtained from the US Census Bureau, "Global
Population Profile: 2002")

Estimates where regresses and tested using ANOVA. This demonstrated that
there is no significant variation from the court time model by year and
region and the derived expected results to the actual results at an
alpha = 5% level.

There is room for error as US, UK and Australian court sitting times
have been used as a universal model to extrapolate a generalised "court
time pa".

Next (secondly) Incident levels are based on a combination (average)
from Symantec and SANS in the 2005 Tests

Thirdly, Crime statistics for incidents have been obtained from the
following sources:
        1       DOJ, Computer Crime Analysis
        2       Australian Institute of Criminology (computer file)

The data from the Australian Institute of Criminology (computer file)
and DOJ has been used to derive a model of western cases. These are
higher than those in Asia for example, but this only further correlates
to the original point, that there is not enough court time on earth to
take all incidents to trial.

These are the primary sources used in the construct of the 7 seconds per
case figure. In reality this figure would be lower as it assumes that
Africa and Asia would be able to bring technical cases to trial at the
same rate as the US. Give this the "real" figure would be several orders
of magnitudes smaller than this.

Other data used in compilation of this data was obtained from the
following sources;
        1       AHTCC (Australian High tech Crime Centre, data dated
2003)
        2       Austrack (AGEC, 2001)
        3       AusCert (Australian Computer Crime and Security Survey
2002)
        4       CCIPS (DOJ, 2002)
        5       ASIC, EFT Complaints 1999-2000
        6       US Federal Trade Commission, "Sentinel Complaints by
Callander Year"
        7       USDOJ 1999 "Report on Cyber staking"

Data from the AIC and PWC "Serious fraud in Australia and NZ, Research
and Public policy series No.48" was also used extensively. No permission
is obtained for the use of the figures.

More to follow after lunch... Intermission

Regards
Craig

        Dr Craig S Wright DTh MNSA MMIT CISA CISM CISSP ISSMP ISSAP
G7799 GCFA AFAIM
Manager - Computer Assurance Services
BDO Chartered Accountants & Advisers
Level 19, 2 Market Street,
Sydney, NSW 2001
Telephone: +61 2 9286 5555
Fax: +61 2 9993 9705
Direct: +61 2 9286 5497
<Mailto:CWright () bdosyd com au>




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