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Re: 2013 - A New Hope
From: Dominique Brezinski <dominique.brezinski () gmail com>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 08:22:01 -0800

I think you just highlighted the catalyst for a truly Gibson-esque future
where the power of corporations greatly supersedes governments. When
corporations are forced to turn their resources and innovation towards
defending against governments, their agility and cross-border capability
will play to their advantage. Taxation is an example on the finance side.
We will see how it plays out on the information side.


On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 7:50 AM, Dave Aitel <dave () immunityinc com> wrote:

2013 - A New Hope

So I hesitate to make predictions, but I think it's important to at some
level acknowledge that 2013 was a huge year for information security. A few
things happened... :

o The rebirth of managed security services.

When you don't care about bringing hackers to court, but you DO care about
the security of your IP, you start to evolve a very different fabric on
your network and you need a completely different specialist set of skills.
Managed Security Services used to be the haven of total technical
wash-outs, with IDS monkeys watching screens for alerts nobody cared about.
This has changed, and I think the watershed moment was February 2013, with
Mandiant releasing their APT1 
We are moving to a much more highly skilled, and expensive, version of
managed security services, with Mandiant, Crowdstrike, Terremark, and
others all competing with similar technologies and methodologies and price
points. This is the pendulum swinging away from offense a bit more,
assuming people can afford these services (which is not at all a given).

o The Snowden Event

Look, there's very little in the "revelations" Snowden has talked about
that wasn't already highly visible to industry insiders: What can be done,
is being done. And everyone who says Cyber is a asymmetric warfare should
be eating their words now, since you cannot believe the US Intel Community
has succeeded to the level they have in this space and think it was a game
for small players anymore.  My USENIX talk from 2011<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5ULFP4CgQU>pointed out much of 
what has come out. The most obvious angle on the story
is the growing push-back from corporations. Google building certificate
pinning into Chrome by default hurts not just Iran, but also all the allied
governments Google calls home, who are just as happy about how the global
PKI system SSL depends on bends to their whims. The corporations have been
taking huge unbalanced risks on behalf of their governments, and these
chickens are coming home to roost. Or, to be more specific, vultures, as Huawei
being thrown out of the largest market for IT gear in the world. But
it's exactly that horrifying prospect that scares Facebook and Google and
every other big US IT company into taking a hard line with the USG, and no
doubt, with one eye on Cisco's revenue sheet

To quote from today's Washington Post 
Microsoft general counsel Brad Smith took to his company’s blog and called
the NSA an “advanced persistent 
— the worst of all fighting words in U.S. cybersecurity circles, generally
reserved for Chinese state-sponsored hackers and sophisticated criminal

What should scare administration officials is that when you talk to big
financials in NY, they feel the exact same way. In my discussions, they are
now MORE invested in securing themselves against the US Government than the
Chinese government!

It is safe to say these battle lines have yet to be completely redrawn,
and when they do the Chinese and US governments will be on the same side,
with Chinese and US corporations allied against them.

And we will then officially exit the "Golden age of SIGINT" and enter the
scrappy Bronze Age of Targeted Access.

o The rise of Bitcoin

The financials (and business in general) are extremely excited about the
useful shared delusion that is Bitcoin. Nobody knows how this pans out, but
it doesn't necessarily pan out well for groups whose root of power is
controlling the flow of 

o The cementing of Leaks as cyberweapons

Every reporter I talk to now who is starting a new venture has a
foundational element of "some place people can send me leaked documents".
The concept of leaking things into the public eye as a cyber-weapon has
gone from "Assange is a crazy loon" to "This is how things get done" in a
fairly rapid space. It's easy to forget that the whole reason he started
WikiLeaks was that he believed that you could forever change how government
works by draining the ocean of secrecy they live in (and of course, to get
babes). The Russian and Chinese and Iranians and so forth are snarkily
reveling in how the USG is painfully handling the leaks, but of course,
their turn is coming, and they are far more vulnerable.


So to sum up, 2013 was a year governments (and in particular the USG)
found their influence sharply contracting, with budget cuts, shutdowns, and
philosophical pressure on all sides. I, with the rest of the hacker
community, look forward to 2014, when the empire can strike back.


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