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Re: University Researchers Challenge Bush Win In Florida
From: hggdh <hggdh () comcast net>
Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:00:55 -0600

Hello Gregory,

Tuesday, November 23, 2004, 17:27:34, you wrote:

GG> So, while the circular reasoning comment is cute, I support Paul's somewhat
GG> cautious approach. After all, if say we were discussing a vulnerability
GG> in Win2K or something similar, we would make damned certain that the
GG> thing works and worked properly and consistently before we pass it around
GG> or disclose it, for fear of incurring the wrath of the population of this
GG> list, for example.

This is indeed the case. I had replied directly to Paul before, and
will now expand a bit here on this.

My problem with Paul's argument was his choice of "more respected
peers". The UCB people published what they *think* was correct, gave
the reasoning, and provided the sources and the raw data.

So, if I want to prove/dispute/verify, I can analyse UCB's reasoning,
even collect the data all over again -- which would be safer --, run
other analysis, etc. I may *reproduce* it, *verify* it, I may
*disprove* it.

On the other hand, the others provided a _statement_ that they did not
see anything weird. No data, no reasoning, no anything. Just by being
"academic", and very cautious, I am forced to disregard this. I cannot
prove their statement to be correct or incorrect. It's just hot air.

I absolutely agree with Paul -- there is *NOTHING* to investigate in
the judicial sense of the word, since there is nothing proving or
suggesting a crime was commited. And, mind you, neither did the UCB
people suggest a crime had been commited. They state more analysis is
required. They state the results are not coherent with the models.

There is, nevertheless a LOT to investigate by the academia --
specifically, UCB's assertion.

Only after such an analysis -- which should either confirm or not
confirm UCB's results -- can we then think on what can be done (if
needed). But to state that UCB's results PROVE fraud is as hot air as
the statement as I commented earlier.

After all, this is statistics, and almost anyone of us that has played
in this field knows how to truthfully lie with it.

Now, I hope we can bury this argument and go back to the usual stuff.

Huh, perhaps this IS the usual stuff...



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