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Re: do read !!! Comcast confirms 250GB cap effective October 1
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Tue, 2 Sep 2008 04:44:06 -0400



Begin forwarded message:

From: Tom Vest <tvest () eyeconomics com>
Date: September 2, 2008 4:07:19 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: "ip" <ip () v2 listbox com>
Subject: Re: [IP] Re: do read !!! Comcast confirms 250GB cap effective October 1

Hi Dave,

Extremely credible local sources in both Japan and Korea express grave doubts about the validity of this explanation, at least for those two markets at the current moment in time. In both cases, the very high quality/high density of local infrastructure, coupled with the very high correlation of language and content demand are interacting with p2p algorithms as one would expect, to produce the same kind of highly localized geographic distribution patterns that one generally observes with more conventional content distribution systems in those markets -- or so the local experts suggest.

International traffic flows are apparently growing faster than local- local traffic exchange, at least in Japan, because of an atypical spike in the popularity of specific "foreign" content sources -- e.g., Google Maps, Youtube, et al. -- one that has (perhaps only temporarily) outpaced the natural tendency for foreign operators to localize such flows themselves.

Having gotten out of the localizing-traffic-in-East-Asia business myself a few years ago, I was skeptical but didn't trust my own doubts. If there are any other questions or comments on this thread, I'll see if I can persuade the current experts themselves to chime in.

If one wants to convince the world of something, perhaps the first place to start is with a convincing understanding of the world itself...

TV

On Aug 30, 2008, at 8:33 PM, David Farber wrote:

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Dr. Lawrence Roberts" <lroberts () anagran com>
Date: August 30, 2008 1:16:14 AM EDT
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>, Larry Roberts <lroberts () anagran com >, dan () lynch com Subject: Re: Fwd: [IP] do read !!! Comcast confirms 250GB cap effective October 1

Unfortunately, the problem is even worse for Japan and S. Korea. P2P users are more common, the countries are small so most downloads or uploads go international, and their High speed symmetric BB links suffer far worse than our un-symmetric lower speed BB connections. So they have major economic problems. They have tried DPI even before us but it cannot find all the encrypted flows now so the remaining 30% or the P2P users still can operate freely. The remaining P2P users then spawn more flows and take up the same 80-90% of the pooled capacity. The result is the average user get very poor service.

However going to a GB cap or a charge per GB is really bad as we know. But put this down to flailing for a solution in the face of an extremely bad situation. The Internet cannot stand up to this as more and more applications discover the ease of getting more capacity by using more flows.

I continue to believe that equal capacity for equal pay instead of equal capacity per flow is what we need to move to, since then congestion will affect us all fairly (as it used to). But how does one convince the world?
Larry

At 02:12 PM 8/29/2008, David Farber wrote:


Begin forwarded message:

From: Dan Lynch <dan () lynch com>
Date: August 29, 2008 2:37:05 PM EDT
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>, Tony Lauck <tlauck () madriver com>
Subject: Re: [IP] do read !!!  Comcast confirms 250GB cap effective
October 1

Thanks Tony.  Now I think it gets trickier here as a solution for a
single
AS (like Comcast) may not be very helpful for customers who span
multiple
Ases, if the intermediate systems do not also play by the same rules.
Maybe
someone like Mike O'Dell can offer his deep experience here? Or Larry
Roberts whose new company, Anagran, is wrestling with this issue of
"fairness" across a long haul. We do need some "rules of the road" that
benefit everyone or no one will win very much.  Right now those
countries
that are overprovisioning (like Japan, South Korea and Finland) look
pretty
smart and don't have to address the fairness issue (yet).

Dan


On 8/29/08 10:13 AM, "Dave Farber" <dave () farber net> wrote:



Begin forwarded message:

From: Tony Lauck <tlauck () madriver com>
Date: August 29, 2008 12:55:28 PM EDT
To: Dan Lynch <dan () lynch com>
Cc: "'David Farber'" <dave () farber net>
Subject: Re: [IP] Re:   do read Comcast confirms 250GB cap effective
October 1

Dan,

Yes, a cap will solve the congestion problem if it is set sufficiently
low.  In the limit it definitely solves the congestion problem by
driving away all the customers. (The Prodigy solution.)

The problem is that congestion is caused by instantaneous load
exceeding capacity, whereas monthly usage measures average load. If
there are, say, four busy hours per day, an average based cap will
need to be set (roughly) six times lower than it would otherwise need
to be. The result will be unhappy customers. In addition, the bean
counters (who are unlikely to know any queuing theory) may suggest
that expenses be cut by reducing resources!

I have written many IP posts on this subject and you can find them in
the archive. Basically, a proper solution is to give higher priority
to users who create less congestion. Let everybody go as fast as they want when there is no congestion. If people need or want more capacity
than others, let them pay more for more "shares" and adjust the
weighting accordingly, and use the money to increase capacity. This
approach is politically neutral, i.e. it will work in a capitalist or
a socialist society. Unlike the Comcast cap it follows the principle
of maximum utilization of resources.

Tony Lauck
https://www.aglauck.com



Dan Lynch wrote:
Tony, can you teach me how a cap does not solve their congestion
problem?
In the limit it sure does...
Thanks,
Dan




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Tel. 707-967-0203   Cell  650-776-7313
My assistant is Dori Kirk   Tel. 707-255-7094  dori () lynch com







Dr. Lawrence G. Roberts, Ph:+1 650-906-8746, W: www.anagran.com, E: lroberts () anagran com Founder, Chairman, Chief Architect, Anagran, Inc., 580 Pastoria Ave., Sunnyvale, CA 94085 USA If not for you, please return. Any use other than the intended recipient is unauthorized.



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