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Re: North America not interested in IP V6
From: "Marshall Eubanks" <tme () multicasttech com>
Date: Fri, 01 Aug 2003 10:52:20 -0400

On Fri, 1 Aug 2003 14:32:39 +0100
 Michael.Dillon () radianz com wrote:

I have been plotting the IPv6 ASNs for some time. These should be the
ISPs running IPv6. See:

It would be interesting to see an analysis that combines this data with 
Geoff Huston's IPv4 analysis
and see if we can predict the point at which the number of IPv6 addresses 
deployed begins to exceed the number of IPv4 addresses deployed? I realize 
that  the IPv6 analysis is routes only, but one should be able to 
determine how many addresses are available in each ASN.

One could reasonably assume that at the point where the Internet shifts to 
IPv6 as the core protocol, more than half of the interfaces with an IPv4 
address will also have an IPv6 address. So to get to that point, one could 
make some assumptions about the allocation of IPv6 /48's based on the 
observed trends in IPv4 /32's.

I'm not sure where one would take this, but I think a lot of people would 
be interested in seeing some type of well-presented analysis of these 

It's not worth doing a fine analysis to predict so far in the future - a
back of the envelope will do just fine :)

Look at ASN :


shows that IPv6 ASN (as seen fron NLNetLabs) are doubling about every 1.75
years, and are about 340 now.

So, IPv6 ASN can be modeled as 

N_6 = 340 x 2^(T/1.75)

where T = time - 2003.5 in years.

Now, IPv4 ASN withb routing are growing linearly lately (see Figure 2b in
http://www.multicasttech.com/status/index.html for example) and
can be roughly modeled as

N_4 = 15000 + 1750 x (t - 2003.5) = 15000 + 1750 T

Set N_4 = N_6 and we see that the number of IPv4 and IPv6 ASN with routing
will be equal in a little less than 12 years (T ~ 11.75), or some time in the
Spring of 2015.

This is far enough into the future that I do not think that it is realistic to
be more rigorous than this.

Marshall Eubanks

--Michael Dillon

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