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Re: "IP networks will feel traffic pain in 2009" (C|Net & Cisco)
From: Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike () swm pp se>
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:58:21 +0100 (CET)

On Tue, 20 Jan 2009, Paul Vixie wrote:

"Cisco VNI projections indicate that IP traffic will increase at a combined
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling
every two years. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on the
world's IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes2, or more than half a
zettabyte."

Two thoughts:

Why do some people think that bytes/month is a relevant measure of traffic? Peak bits/second is what you need to make your network handle for it to perform well.

For me CAGR of 46% is a slowdown. I'm used to 75-120% growth per year in traffic, 46% is a relief. As markets mature (we're seeing decline in # of DSL lines in the country, increase is in LAN and mobile) less new people are going online (the ones who want Internet access already have it) and the increase per year in traffic by existing users is slower than the increase seen during the rush of new users coming online.

This will of course vary by where you are in the world...

--
Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike () swm pp se


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