mailing list archives
Re: "IP networks will feel traffic pain in 2009" (C|Net & Cisco)
From: "Patrick W. Gilmore" <patrick () ianai net>
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 15:18:05 -0500
On Jan 20, 2009, at 2:58 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
On Tue, 20 Jan 2009, Paul Vixie wrote:
"Cisco VNI projections indicate that IP traffic will increase at a
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly
every two years. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on
world's IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes2, or more than
Why do some people think that bytes/month is a relevant measure of
traffic? Peak bits/second is what you need to make your network
handle for it to perform well.
For me CAGR of 46% is a slowdown. I'm used to 75-120% growth per
year in traffic, 46% is a relief. As markets mature (we're seeing
decline in # of DSL lines in the country, increase is in LAN and
mobile) less new people are going online (the ones who want Internet
access already have it) and the increase per year in traffic by
existing users is slower than the increase seen during the rush of
new users coming online.
It is a slowdown, but the underlying situation is not the same.
100 Mbps came out before most were doing 100 Mbps on a typical LAN in
1000 Mbps came out before most were doing 1000 Mbps on a typical WAN
10000 Mbps came out before most were aggregating 10x[GigE|OC12] on
their largest individual WAN links.
100000 Mbps should come out shortly after most are aggregating 32x10GE
on a typical WAN link.
See a pattern forming here?