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Re: "IP networks will feel traffic pain in 2009" (C|Net & Cisco)
From: "Patrick W. Gilmore" <patrick () ianai net>
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 15:18:05 -0500

On Jan 20, 2009, at 2:58 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
On Tue, 20 Jan 2009, Paul Vixie wrote:

"Cisco VNI projections indicate that IP traffic will increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling every two years. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on the world's IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes2, or more than half a
zettabyte."

Two thoughts:

Why do some people think that bytes/month is a relevant measure of traffic? Peak bits/second is what you need to make your network handle for it to perform well.

For me CAGR of 46% is a slowdown. I'm used to 75-120% growth per year in traffic, 46% is a relief. As markets mature (we're seeing decline in # of DSL lines in the country, increase is in LAN and mobile) less new people are going online (the ones who want Internet access already have it) and the increase per year in traffic by existing users is slower than the increase seen during the rush of new users coming online.


It is a slowdown, but the underlying situation is not the same.

100 Mbps came out before most were doing 100 Mbps on a typical LAN in aggregate. 1000 Mbps came out before most were doing 1000 Mbps on a typical WAN in aggregate. 10000 Mbps came out before most were aggregating 10x[GigE|OC12] on their largest individual WAN links. 100000 Mbps should come out shortly after most are aggregating 32x10GE on a typical WAN link.

See a pattern forming here?

--
TTFN,
patrick



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