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Re: IPv6 end user addressing
From: Joel Jaeggli <joelja () bogus com>
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2011 20:29:35 -0700

On Aug 10, 2011, at 6:52 PM, Brian E Carpenter wrote:

On 2011-08-11 12:45, james machado wrote:

what is the life expectancy of IPv6?  It won't live forever and we
can't reasonably expect it too.  I understand we don't want run out of
addresses in the next 10-40 years but what about 100? 200? 300?

We will run out and our decedents will go through re-numbering again.
The question becomes what is the life expectancy of IPv6 and does the
allocation plan make a reasonable attempt to run out of addresses
around the end of the expected life of IPv6.

Well, we know that the human population will stabilise somewhere below
ten billion by around 2050. The current unicast space provides for about
15 trillion /48s. Let's assume that the RIRs and ISPs retain their current
level of engineering common sense - i.e. the address space will begin to be
really full when there are about 25% of those /48s being routed... that makes
3.75 trillion /48s routed for ten billion people, or 375 /48s per man, woman
and child. (Or about 25 million /64s if you prefer.)

It's not the humans that are going to soak up the address space, so it seems a little misguided to count up the humans 
a reference for the bounding properties on growth. That said I think 2000::/3 will last long enough, that we shouldn't 
be out rewriting policy anytime soon.

At that point, IANA would have to release unicast space other than 2000::/3
and we could start again with a new allocation policy.

I am *really* not worried about this. Other stuff, such as BGP4, will break
irrevocably long before this.

We have a few problems to solve along the way. Running the current network is hard enough as it is.


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