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Re: IPv6 end user addressing
From: Eugen Leitl <eugen () leitl org>
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2011 11:53:48 +0200

On Thu, Aug 11, 2011 at 01:52:10PM +1200, Brian E Carpenter wrote:

Well, we know that the human population will stabilise somewhere below
ten billion by around 2050. The current unicast space provides for about

How about the machine population? How about self-replicating systems?
How about geography-based address allocation, to go away with global routing
tables? How about InterPlaNet, such as LEO routers, solar power
satellites, controlling industrial production on the Moon and elsewhere?

I don't expect IPv6 will last much longer than IPv4. And that's probably
a good thing.

15 trillion /48s. Let's assume that the RIRs and ISPs retain their current
level of engineering common sense - i.e. the address space will begin to be
really full when there are about 25% of those /48s being routed... that makes
3.75 trillion /48s routed for ten billion people, or 375 /48s per man, woman
and child. (Or about 25 million /64s if you prefer.)

At that point, IANA would have to release unicast space other than 2000::/3
and we could start again with a new allocation policy.

I am *really* not worried about this. Other stuff, such as BGP4, will break
irrevocably long before this.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org";>leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE


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