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Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
From: Todd Underwood <toddunder () gmail com>
Date: Wed, 24 Apr 2013 07:55:58 -0700

this is still my favorite post on this subject:

http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2011-February/031737.html

t


On Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 3:36 PM, staticsafe <me () staticsafe ca> wrote:

On 4/23/2013 18:04, Leo Bicknell wrote:
In a message written on Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 05:41:40PM -0400,
Valdis Kletnieks wrote:
I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper:

http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf

tl;dr: ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in
August this year.

Here's a Geoff Houston report from 2005:

https://www.arin.net/participate/meetings/reports/ARIN_XVI/PDF/wednesday/huston_ipv4_roundtable.pdf

 I point to page 8, and the prediction "RIR Pool Exhaustion, 4
June 2013".

Those of us who paid attention are well prepared.

tl;dr: Real statistical models properly executed in 2005 were
remarkably close to the reality 8 years later.

On that note, something Mr. Huston wrote more recently:

"A Primer on IPv4, IPv6 and Transition"
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2013-04/primer.html

Discussion:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5586519

--
staticsafe
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