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Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
From: Owen DeLong <owen () delong com>
Date: Wed, 24 Apr 2013 14:49:08 -0400


On Apr 24, 2013, at 2:45 PM, ML <ml () kenweb org> wrote:

On 4/23/2013 5:41 PM, Valdis Kletnieks wrote:
I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper:

http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf

tl;dr: ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in August this year.

Are you ready?



Where do the startup ISPs whom didn't qualify for PI IPv4 in the past
fit into a post-run out world where they would qualify?
I am speaking in generics but also about a real ISP that is in this
situation today. 

In my example This ISP could show need for a /22 but wasn't multihoming
at the time and likely will not until after run-out. 
How does such an ISP begin to address their backbone and customers
facing interfaces without tying themselves to an ISP and their PA space?

I don't imagine they will be open to paying extortion prices for IPs
that other people never bothered to use.

As it currently stands in the ARIN region, the qualifications for transfer and for
obtaining space from the free pool are identical. Currently, the only difference
is that they could obtain 24 months worth of address space via transfer and
only 3 months from the free pool.

Bottom line, anyone building a business today depending on the continued
availability of an IPv4 free pool from an RIR is taking on a very high degree
of risk. IMHO, such a business plan would be ill-advised, to say the least.

Owen




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