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Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
From: joel jaeggli <joelja () bogus com>
Date: Thu, 25 Apr 2013 23:27:08 -0700

On 4/24/13 1:55 AM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
On Wed, 24 Apr 2013, Geoff Huston wrote:

However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high probability on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year. I also have to qualify that by noting that while I think that a runout of the remaining 40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable, its by no means impossible. If we saw a re-run of the address consumption rates that ARIN experienced in 2010, then it's not outside the bounds of plausibility that ARIN will be handing out its last address later this year.

I also find it a bit strange that the runout in APNIC and RIPE was very different. APNIC address allocation rate accelerated at the end, whereas RIPE exhaustion date kept creeping forward in time instead of closer in time, giving me the impression that there wasn't any panic there.

apnic allocation reserved the final /8 for /22 maximal allocations. Couple that with some qualifying very large assignments towards the end of stage two e.g between feb 1 and april 14 2011 7 provider assignments combined soaked up more than 2 /8s and you get rapid runout towards the endgame.
Has anyone done any detailed analysis of the last year of allocation behaviour for each of these regions, trying to understand the difference in behaviour? I'd be very interested in this.

My belief (not well founded) is that ARIN runout will look more like RIPE region than APNIC...




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