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Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
From: Lee Howard <Lee () asgard org>
Date: Fri, 26 Apr 2013 11:32:58 -0400



On 4/26/13 7:31 AM, "Owen DeLong" <owen () delong com> wrote:


On Apr 25, 2013, at 10:49 PM, Michael Thomas <mike () mtcc com> wrote:

On 04/25/2013 07:27 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
At some level, I wonder how much the feedback loop of "providers
won't deploy ipv6 because everybody says they won't deploy ipv6"
has caused this self-fulfilling prophecy :/
It's a definite issue. The bigger issue is the financial incentives
are all in the
wrong direction.

Eyeball networks have an incentive not to deploy IPv6 until content
providers
have done so or until they have no other choice.

Yet, eyeball networks are the ones being asked to pony up all of the
cost to put in place the hacks to keep v4 running so they don't get
support center calls. That's a pretty asymmetric, and a potential
opportunity.

Quite the contraryŠ I personally think that the abysmal rate of IPv6
adoption among
some content providers (Are you listening, Amazon, Xbox, BING?) is just
plain shameful.

Bing supports IPv6: http://www.worldipv6launch.org/
The site www.xbox.com supports IPv6 (ditto), but the Xbox device does not.
My favorite place to see what content supports IPv6 is Eric Vyncke's site:
http://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/detailed.php?country=us
Thus, credit to Microsoft for Bing, but points off for live.com, msn.com,
microsoft.com, etc.

Similarly, partial credit to Amazon for ELB on AWS [1], but points off for
amazon.com, ebay.com, and for pity's sake, aws.amazon.com and
amazonaws.com.


[1] 
http://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2011/05/24/elb-ipv6-zoneapex-secu
ritygroups/


I applaud Yahoo, Google, Facebook, and others who have adopted IPv6. I'd
like
to applaud Netflix here, but they keep going back and forth on their IPv6
support,
so they get a one-handed clap for the moment.

I'm trying to encourage people to push on the content providers to deploy
IPv6
to avoid the need for eyeball networks to pony up all these bizarre hacks.

Lee Howard has some rather interesting research showing that for eyeball
networks, the most cost effective thing up to about (IIRC) $15/address is
to
simply keep buying IPv4 addresses on the transfer market. Beyond that, it
actually becomes cheaper to simply go IPv6-only and accept the loss of
customers that won't accept that solution.

See 
http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog56/presentations/Wednesday/wed.general.h
oward.24.wmv
and 
http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog57/presentations/Tuesday/tue.cost-ipv4-i
pv6-dual-stack.howard.wmv
(and for dollar signs on the second one, see TCO of IPv6 at
http://new.livestream.com/internetsociety/INETDenver2013/videos/16668823  )

But to see the rest, you have come to NANOG58 in New Orleans!




On the other hand, there is The Cloud. I assume that aws and all of
the
other major vm farms have native v6 networks by now (?). I hooked up
You again assume facts not in evidence. Many cloud providers have done
IPv6. Rackspace stands out as exemplary in this regard. Linode has done
some good work in this space.

AWS stands out as a complete laggard in this area.

Heh... that's why I put all kinds of question marks and hedges :)
That's disappointing about aws. On the other hand, if aws lights
up v6, a huge amount of content will be v6 capable in one swell-foop.
Which is a different problem of death by a thousand cuts of corpro
data centers, and racked up servers in no-name cages.

Actually, if Amazon.com lit up IPv6, it would dramatically change the
IPv6-only
client landscape. I believe they are the single largest IPv4-only content
provider
remaining. IIRC from Lee's statistics, Amazon + any 2 other members of the
Alexa 100 would make it possible for 70% or more of web traffic to go over
IPv6.

Not mine; Alain Fiocco's numbers  at http://6lab.cisco.com/stats/
It's not quite that positive, either, but you can see in the Information
page of that site that there's a very sharp bend in which sites get the
most hits.  The top 15-20 are disproportionate; after that, in many cases
substitute web sites are available.




v6 support on linode in, oh, less than an hour for my site. Maybe part
of this just evangelizing with the Cloud folks to get the word out
that
v6 is both supported *and* beneficial for your site? And it might
give them
a leg up with "legacy" web infrastructure data centers to lure them?
"Oh,
your corpro IT guys won't light up v6? let me show you how easy it is
on
$MEGACLOUD".
+1 -- I encourage people to seek providers that support IPv6.


Name. and. shame. At some level, some amount of bs is probably useful
to scare the suits: "OMG, VZW'S PHONES SUPPORT V6, DO WE DO THAT????".
Roll your eyes, but, well, remember they're suits.

I've been doing just that. Interestingly, I got a great deal of criticism
for doing
so recently.

Where do you name and shame suits?  Hint: it isn't NANOG.

Lee, who has been known to wear a suit




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