Re: global warming is b/s? nice hatchet job

[Rich Kulawiec <rsk () gsp org>]

On Sat, Jul 11, 2009 at 07:01:42PM +0300, Gadi Evron wrote:
> wow, just... wow. Even if this is real it is a master-piece of how to
> discredit, write fake and unsubstantiated:

Quite.  The pity is that some of lesser intelligence will actually
believe this nonsense.  Then again, some of the same apparently think
the earth is 6,000 years old, so perhaps it's expecting far too much of
them to grasp a complex multivariate stochastic process.

BTW, I've been doing some reading on sea ice breakup mechanisms --
some of which are well understood, some of which are partially
understood -- and one of the things that's becoming clear is that
cracking seems to have far more of an accelerative effect than
previously thought.  In 2001, the IPCC said that major ice retreat
would probably not occur before 2100.  In 2007, some of the folks
at NOAA said that by 2050, summer ice would be gone.  And in 2008,
an NSDIC report stated that sumer ice could be gone by 2030: Arctic
amplification (which wasn't expected to kick in for another decade)
has pushed the melt cycle past the tipping point.

See for instance:

        http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

All of which indicates that the most pessimistic models...aren't
yet pessimistic enough.

---Rsk
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