Re: Actual Climate Change Thread

[Martin Tomasek <tomasek () ufe cz>]

Tomas L. Byrnes wrote:
> Wow, this reminds me of something form the Dada engine, or the "social 
> Text" affair.
>
>  
>
> Not sure where to begin in deconstruction, but it seems that the 
> following statement:
>
>  
>
> "Weather has alpha-stable distribution.  This means varince is 
> infinite, at least in theory."  
>
>  
>
> Is demonstrably false, since at some value of significant enough 
> atmospheric excitation there would cease to be an atmosphere due to 
> the gasses achieving escape velocity, as the most obvious example of 
> some sort of limitation on the system.

Hm.. another example of system governed by stable distribution is time 
series of stock prices. Economists are arguing in similar way, but are 
unable to come with anything better. Instead, they stick to gaussian and 
lognormal distributions (which is valid for short time interval samples 
from series).

> My guess is that a more valid model of weather is that it is variable 
> within bounds set by climate, and climate within bounds set by 
> insolation, albedo, gas composition (I doubt we're about to get a 
> methane atmosphere any time soon, FE), etc.

You are describing almost the same model. But you sidestepped question 
of distribution of - say - temperature. What distribution will you get 
for temperature in your model?

> IOW, it's actually in dynamic equilibrium locally, but it's gross 
> equilibrium is static in a relatively small spectrum, absent some 
> major external force.
>
>  
>
> For something more in-line with the expertise of this group, some 
> examination of the (awful IMNSHO) actual code used at the CRU is in order:
>
>  
>
> http://di2.nu/foia/HARRY_READ_ME-0.html 

Yes, they can't write readable code and are unable to use DBMSs. But 
what did you expect? They are scientists, not programmers.

--
Martin Tomasek

"Those who sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither." --Benjamin Franklin

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