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IP: DailyPennsylvanian.com - Penn experts say U.S. can expect more terrorism
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Mon, 08 Oct 2001 09:50:25 -0400
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<b>Penn experts say U.S. can expect more terrorism</b>
</font>
<br>
<font face="arial,helvetica,sans,helv" color="#000000" size="3">
<i>Many professors agree that yesterdays retaliation was just the beginning of a long conflict.</i>
</font>
<br>
<br>
<font face="arial,helvetica,sans,helv" color="#000000" size="1">
By Steve Brauntuch<br>
October 08, 2001
<br><br>
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Yesterday's attacks on military sites and al-Qaeda training camps
in Afghanistan may have surprised American citizens, but they
didn't surprise many experts.<p>
In fact, some even said they expected the strategic air strikes to
occur exactly when they did.<p>
"It's a replay of a lot of what we were doing during the Gulf War,"
said Political Science Professor Stephen Gale, a terrorism expert.
"There's no question that we were going to have some form of
military action."<p>
But while the country focuses on air strikes overseas, Gale said
he believes the real risk is at home.<p>
"The FBI and CIA all say that it is virtually certain that another
terrorist strike is imminent," he said. "The plans by the terrorists
were in place, and they were waiting for the retaliation."<p>
Political Science Professor Alvin Rubenstein echoed Gale's
concern, saying that the United States must be on a higher state of
alert than ever before.<p>
"If there are members of the al-Qaeda group in the U.S., they will
certainly try to do something," Rubenstein said. "That's going to go
on for a long time."<p>
While several observers are preparing for the likelihood of a
second terrorist attack on American soil in the space of a month,
others focus their attention on the attacks on strategic targets in
Afghanistan, claiming they were imminent.<p>
Rubenstein, who speculated that the bombing of targets in
Afghanistan will continue throughout this week, said that he knew
attacks were inevitable when President Bush first spoke to the
nation on the evening of Sept. 11.<p>
"The president had announced that we were at war against the
al-Qaeda group and those who harbor them," Rubenstein said. "It
was clear that short of the Taliban handing over Osama bin Laden,
we were going to attack."<p>
Although it is not yet known how effective the attacks were in
debilitating the Taliban's military forces, Political Science
Professor Avery Goldstein said the aim of the attacks is clear.<p>
"The most logical thing is that this first wave is to knock out the
Taliban's ability to resist," Goldstein said. "The hope is that after
this initial shock there will be some internal collapse in the
Taliban."<p>
Goldstein said he believes that the U.S. will take a wait-and-see
attitude to determine whether ground attacks are necessary, but
the hope is that Afghan rebel forces will provide the resources to
help avoid using allied troops.<p>
Gale, however, said that he believes ground action is likely, and
Washington insiders tell him that the public may not even hear
about ground strikes if they do happen.<p>
"They do anticipate some sort of ground action, some sort of
commando operation," Gale said. "I think they're going to try to
keep their targets as quiet as possible, for as long as
possible."<p>
Goldstein said that the worst case scenario for the United States
would be if the Taliban does not collapse and the al-Qaeda
leaders spread into the mountains and the countryside, making
tactical strikes much more difficult.<p>
According to Gale, in addition to the air strikes, the presence of
American troops in Mecca and Israeli control of Jerusalem are two
of the many factors that are currently motivating the al-Qaeda
terrorists.<p>
Gale said he believes that a terrorist attack, possibly focused on
commercial or political targets on the East Coast, could happen
as early as today.<p>
"The terrorists are saying, `We have spoken to them with a voice
of God. If they do not hear it, then we will speak to them again,'"
Gale said.<p>
The unpredictability of terrorism, Goldstein said, is what stacks
the deck in favor of the terrorists. Although the nation is currently on
guard, preventing a smaller scale terrorist attack will be
difficult.<p>
Rubenstein agreed, saying that the United States "is going to
have to take the kinds of measures that other countries have had
to take for years."<p>
The United States "has learned what other countries have known
for decades, that there are groups out there who are looking to
overthrow existing governments," he said.<p>
Gale said he believes that the United States does not currently
have the security measures in place to stop a future terrorist
attack.<p>
"If [the terrorists] play by a rule book and follow our plans, I guess
we could stop them," he said. "It certainly wouldn't stop me." <img
src="/vimages/vnews/templates/default/dingbat.gif" alt="end of article dingbat" width="8" height="8" border="0"><br>
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