TOEFL data (was RE: TOEFL sees sharp drop in attendees in China)

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Delivered-To: dfarber+ () ux13 sp cs cmu edu
Date: Thu, 25 Dec 2003 14:21:34 -0800
From: Paul Kedrosky <pkedrosky () hotmail com>
Subject: TOEFL data (was RE: [IP] TOEFL sees sharp drop in attendees in China)
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To: dave () farber net

Dave --

I saw this article on TOEFL, wrote a comment on it
(http://www.kedrosky.com/ig/archives/000147.html), and then began to think
something was awry. After all, this is a huge drop. I teach on a campus with
many Chinese students -- why had I not heard about it sooner. Fewer Chinese
grad students means higher tuitions for other students, or lower costs, or
both, given their large presence at U.S. universities.

I was sufficiently intrigued to pursue it further. But unless I'm reading
the data wrong, the TOEFL statistics
(http://www.toefl.org/pubs/resdloadlib.html#summaries) don't show this
decline. Matter of fact, it shows strong growth right across 9/11 in the
number of Chinese mainland TOEFL-takers.

Period  #
1999/00 10,961
2000/01 14,539
2001/02 17,644
2002/03 22,699
2003/   10,000 * (from original article)

In other words, it's a good story, but it doesn't seem to correspond to the
data.

P. 

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