2 on A fundamental deception lies at the core of thepeace & justice movement

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Brad Templeton <brad () templetons com>
Organization: http://www.templetons.com/brad
Date: Mon, 17 Mar 2003 10:53:18 -0800
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Cc: ip <ip () v2 listbox com>
Subject: Re: [IP] 2 on A fundamental deception lies at the core of thepeace
& justice movement

> But Mr. Connelly is correct. Peace marches don't avert war. At least not in
this case. 


I found this to be an particularly interesting remark.  The marches
are playing a role at a higher level.  They are raising the stakes.
If Blair and Bush really are firmly convinced of the need for war,
they will not respond to the marches, nor should they at this
level -- it being well noted that public support for the war seems
higher than for WWII after France was invaded.

So what do the marches mean?   Well, for one, they harden Pharaoh's
heart.  They make it all or nothing for Bush and Blair.  They cost
political capital, and the more capital they invest, the harder
it is to back down, even if it's the right thing to do.

They must see it through, if only to prove that they were right.

And if they are not proven right, or more seriously are proven
wrong, the political damage will be tremendous, quite probably
ruinous.

So Bush is left with the choice of looking like a wimp (remember
that word and the effect it had prior to Gulf War One?(*)) and
caving in to protesters and world opinion, or fighting the war in
the hope (and belief) that, as in WWII, horrors will be uncovered
that make the public thank you for dragging them into it.  Or fight
and get a non-conclusive result.   Can there be much surprise at his
choice, now?

(*)It has been pointed out to me that perhaps that one should probably be
called Gulf War 327, and this one Gulf War 328.   (or other made-up
numbers -- it would take a good student of history of the region to
tell us exactly how many wars have engulfed that region.  Just in
this century we have of course WW1, WWII, Iran-Iraq, the Israeli-Arab
wars, inter-arab wars, etc.)


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