DSL, not cable, driving global broadband growth

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Stagg_Newman () mckinsey com
Date: October 20, 2004 6:51:37 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] DSL, not cable, driving global broadband growth


Dave,

For posting if you wish.

This is not surpring.  In most of the world with the exception of the 
Benelux countries
and the U.S. the cable networks have not been upgraded to be high 
quality
two-way capable digital networks.  In fact the quality is usually bad.

So cable networks in most countries would need very large capex upgrades
like what was done in the U.S. over the last decade.   Moreover the 
willingness
to pay for cable services outside the U.S. (land of the couch potatoes) 
is
far less (<50% in Europe typically), so cash flow to pay for upgrade 
not available.

Moreover in much of the world with short clean copper loops, the speed 
and quality
offered over a DSL network is much better than U.S.

For example just learned that in U.K. they are seeing 60,000 DSL 
upgrades per week right
now and 10,000-15,000 cable upgrades.  And U.K. has reasonbaly good 
quality cable.

Stagg Newman
 Senior Practice Expert
 America's Telecom Practice
 McKinsey and Company
 1-202-250-3605 - NC Office
 1-202-662-0958 - DC Office
 1-202-669-3248 - Cell



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