more on why the losing party will contest the 2004 election

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Jon Urdan <jonu () preventsys com>
Date: October 24, 2004 3:50:24 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: RE: [IP] why the losing party will contest the 2004 election

Most of the people on this list respond to data and facts.  Instead of
citing partisan websites, why not focus on "markets?"  www.intrade.com 
has
trading markets in the Presidential election, each state of the 
Presidential
election, every Senate race, and proposition bets (e.g., "Bush to win 
300
electoral votes").  These contracts are presented most days on CNBC 
using
their stock charting technology.  Iowa Electronic Markets also has an
election market as well as some research papers suggesting that markets 
are
both more stable and better predictors of outcomes than polls.

Bush to win is currently trading at about 59 cents (win $1 if Bush 
wins) and
Kerry is at 41 cents.  Bush to win Florida is about 62 cents and Bush 
to win
Ohio is about 55 cents.  These "values" would suggest that the race is 
not
as close as the Kerry websites would like.  If you add up all the state
"markets,"  Bush has 271, Kerry has 238, with Ohio (20), New Mexico 
(5), and
New Hampshire (4) as toss-ups.

One can argue polls, trends, issues, and character endlessly, but when
people have to put their money where their mouth is, Bush has a clear 
lead.

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-ip () v2 listbox com [mailto:owner-ip () v2 listbox com] On 
Behalf Of
David Farber
Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2004 12:26 PM
To: Ip
Subject: [IP] why the losing party will contest the 2004 election




Begin forwarded message:

From: "Ross, Patrick" <pross () warren-news com>
Date: October 21, 2004 10:38:35 AM EDT
To: "'dave () farber net'" <dave () farber net>
Subject: why the losing party will contest the 2004 election

Hi Dave,

Your recent post about www.electoral-vote.com prompted me to send you a
look
at how the two sides are projecting the 2004 election, and why it almost
guarantees a Florida recount.  For IP if you like.

A pro-Kerry site, www.electoral-vote.com, is using the latest polls to
project Kerry winning the electoral college 271-257 (Minnesota's 10
aren't
counted on account of a tie, but they don't matter).  It has Kerry
winning
Florida's 27 votes and Bush winning Wisconsin's 10 votes.  Florida puts
Kerry over the top.

A pro-Bush site, www.electionprojection.com, is using the latest polls
to
project Bush winning 274-264.  It flips the two states above, giving
Bush
Florida and Kerry Wisconsin (it gives Kerry Minnesota, but that's not
enough
with the Florida loss).  Otherwise the projections are the same as
above.
Florida puts Bush over the top.

Both sites claim they are the scientific one, and are doing the best
analysis of the polls.  Of course, that analysis is subjective, as is
the
analysis done by the pollsters themselves.  I think whoever loses will
honestly believe they really won, and if the above projections are any
indication, the loser will have lost Florida when they thought they
should
have won it.  Sound familiar?


Patrick Ross
Associate Managing Editor
Washington Internet Daily
Communications Daily



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