Re: How False Rumors Can Cost Lives

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Talk about miss information. A radio station is telling people what  
they should do about the Flu )without mentioning time or severity or  
anything). Stay home from work, keep your kids home, stay in doors.   
What ever happened to responsible news!! (I repeat -- they made it  
sound that this is what you should do NOW   djf


Begin forwarded message:

From: "David P. Reed" <dpreed () reed com>
Date: April 27, 2009 9:15:03 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: ip <ip () v2 listbox com>
Subject: Re: [IP] How False Rumors Can Cost Lives

Enjoyed this essay.  It stimulated an interesting thought process.  I  
note that Google's overhyped ability to "detect" flu already includes  
fantastic imputed claims -- in particular, that Google is better than   
the CDC and the WHO, because ... well, because a collection of self- 
interested Internet "computational social science" researchers want  
their discipline to become the Next Big Thing.  At the same time,  
Google clearly wants respect since people are challenging its power to  
subvert privacy.

This is a toxic soup of incentives.  If we start to guide public  
policy by Google's inference engine, remember how easy it was to  
subvert Amazon's recommendation list a few weeks ago.

It's plenty wonderful to do public health research without doctors,  
labs, clean data, etc.  We used to call that augury, when it was done  
by examining the contents of many, many dead animal's digestive  
tracts.  I'm sure it appealed to the public and to the King.

-- David

David Farber wrote:
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> *From: *"Steven J. Davidson" <davidson () pobox com <mailto:davidson () pobox com 
> >>
> *Date: *April 27, 2009 12:07:04 AM EDT
> *To: *David Farber <dave () farber net <mailto:dave () farber net>>
> *Subject: **How False Rumors Can Cost Lives*
>
> Dave--for your list if appropriate.
>
> I have said that spreading false rumors in time of epidemic costs  
> lives. People have asked me how.
> [snip]
>
> Now consider our own universe again. We are facing a flu outbreak.  
> It seems most likely that it started at an overcrowded pig farm in  
> Veracruz <http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosurveillance/2009/04/swine-flu-in-mexico-timeline-of-events.html 
> >. I estimate it has about a 40% chance of going pandemic, a 59%  
> chance of fizzling like SARS, and a 1% chance of something else  
> entirely. It’s in a critical stage right now; in the next month or  
> so, it could go either way. [snip]
>
> http://canonical.org/~kragen/costs-lives.html <http://canonical.org/%7Ekragen/costs-lives.html 
> >
>
>    Regards to you and your list. /Steve
>    --
>    Steven J. Davidson, MD, MBA, FACEP, FACPE
>    Chairman, Department of Emergency Medicine
>    Maimonides Medical Center, 4802 10th Ave
>    Brooklyn, NY 11219-2916
>    Office/Fax: 718-283-6030/6042
>
>
>
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