paper on technology manias and gullibility, of some interest to IP list

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko () umn edu>
> Date: August 5, 2010 10:11:06 AM PDT
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: paper on technology manias and gullibility, of some interest to IP list

> Dave,
>
> Since the readers of the IP list are discussed in Section 5 of this
> paper, they might like to learn of it directly, so they have a chance
> to react.
>
> Best regards,
> Andrew
>
>
>
>
>
> Enclosed below is an announcement of a paper on technology bubbles.
> It is based largely on the Internet bubble of a decade ago, and
> concentrates on the "Internet traffic doubling every 100 days" tale.
> As the paper shows, this myth was perceived in very different ways
> by different people, and this by itself helps undermine the foundations
> of much of modern economics and economic policy making.
>
> To get a better understanding of the dynamics of that bubble, to assist
> in the preparation of a book about that incident, I am soliciting information from anyone who was active in telecom 
> during that period. I would particularly like to know what you and your colleagues estimated Internet traffic growth 
> to be, and what your reaction was to the O'Dell/Sidgmore/WorldCom/UUNet myth.  If you were involved in the industry,
> and never heard of it, that would be extremely useful to know, too.
>
> Ideally, I would like concrete information, backed up by dates, and possibly
> even emails, and a permission to quote this information.  However, I will
> settle for more informal comments, and promise confidentiality to anyone
> who requests it.
>
> Andrew Odlyzko
> odlyzko () umn edu
>
>
>
>
>            http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania03.pdf
>
>
>          Bubbles, gullibility, and other challenges for economics,
>             psychology, sociology, and information sciences
>
>                            Andrew Odlyzko
>
>                        School of Mathematics
>                    and Digital Technology Center
>                       University of Minnesota
>
>                            odlyzko () umn edu
>                    http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko
>
>                  Preliminary version, August 5, 2010
>
>
>                             ABSTRACT
>
>   Gullibility is the principal cause of bubbles.  Investors and the general public get snared by a "beautiful 
> illusion" and throw caution to the wind. Attempts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that 
> the authorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often (especially in recent years) been among the 
> most gullible, and were cheerleaders for the exuberant behavior.  Hence what is needed is an objective measure of 
> gullibility.
>
>   This paper argues that it should be possible to develop such a measure. Examples demonstrate, contrary to the 
> efficient market dogma, that in some manias, even top-level business and technology leaders do fall prey to 
> collective hallucinations and become irrational in objective terms.  During the Internet bubble, for example, large 
> classes of them first became unable to comprehend compound interest, and then lost even the ability to do simple 
> arithmetic, to the point of not being able to distinguish 2 from 10.  This phenomenon, together with advances in 
> analysis of social networks and related areas, points to possible ways to develop objective and quantitative tools 
> for measuring gullibility and other aspects of human behavior implicated in bubbles.  It cannot be expected to 
> infallibly detect all destructive bubbles, and may trigger false alarms, but it ought to alert observers to periods 
> where collective investment behavior is becoming irrational.
>
>   The proposed gullibility index might help in developing realistic economic models.  It should also assist in 
> illuminating and guiding decision making.
>
>
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> If you would like to be on the mailing list for notifications of future
> papers on technology bubbles, please send me a note at odlyzko () umn edu
>
>
> The previous three papers in this series are available at:
>
> 1.  Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s
>
>       http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/hallucinations.pdf
>
>
> 2.  This time is different: An example of a giant, wildly speculative, and successful investment mania, B.E. Journal 
> of Economic Analysis & Policy, vol. 10, issue 1, 2010, article 60 (registration required)
>
>       http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol10/iss1/art60
>
>   preprint available at:
>
>        http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania01.pdf
>
>
> 3.  The collapse of the Railway Mania, the development of capital markets, and Robert Lucas Nash, a forgotten pioneer 
> of accounting and financial analysis
>
>       http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania02.pdf
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Source materials for the Railway Mania and the Internet bubble are available
> at the web pages
>
>       http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/rrsources/
>
> and
>
>       http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/



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