Re: IPv4 flag day

["jordi.palet--- via NANOG" <nanog () lists nanog org>]

Hi Vincent,

Very nice blog article. Only a note that in the case of 464XLAT, the stateless NAT46  only happens if there is no DNS64 
(in the host - self-synthesis - or in the network), so mainly only when using literals (for example ping 8.8.8.8 
instead of ping dns.google.com). So in practice, this tends to be much less than 1% of the traffic. Instead in MAP-T it 
is 100% of the traffic.

Something that we always forget is that 50% is the IPv6 traffic without China. If we could count China IPv6 traffic, it 
will be already 65-70% right now.

Regards,
Jordi

@jordipalet

> El 18 jun 2026, a las 6:38, Vincent Bernat via NANOG <nanog () lists nanog org> escribió:
>
> On 2026-06-16 09:08, Lu Heng via NANOG wrote:
>
> > One observation is that IPv4 scarcity remains one of the few genuine
> > scarcity mechanisms in the Internet industry. From an economic perspective,
> > many stakeholders have incentives to continue operating within that
> > framework rather than accelerate a transition that would largely eliminate
> > it.
>
> I've worked for a cloud provider, a content provider, and an ISP. In all cases, there was no interest in artificially 
> keeping IPv4 only. Cloud providers interest are aligned with their customers: if customers want IPv6, you'll 
> implement IPv6. Small and large ISPs need IPv6 because large NAT boxes are expensive to maintain and IPv6 have nicer 
> mechanisms to provide IPv4 than NAT44 or NAT444. Content providers are enabling IPv6 to workaround broken NAT boxes 
> and avoid blocking N unrelated customers because they share the same IPv4 address. Once an ISP has most of its 
> customers on IPv6, their traffic becomes mostly IPv6.
>
> Same discourse with a bit more details: https://vincent.bernat.ch/en/blog/2024-why-ipv6
>
> All this won't make IPv4 disappear, but IPv6 already transports most of the Internet economy. Google stats show that 
> more than half the users are on IPv6 and any IPv6-enabled stats show that two thirds of the services in volume are on 
> IPv6.
>
> The only ones that have an economic interest in keeping IPv4 scarce are people leasing and selling IPv4 (and you seem 
> to be in this group).
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