FC: More on Americans love surveillance: Spy on us, please!

[Declan McCullagh <declan () well com>]

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From: simpson () american edu
Subject: Re: FC: Americans love surveillance, poll says: Spy on us, please!
To: declan () well com
Cc: simpson () american edu
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2001 14:54:37 -0500

Hello Declan -

     This poll is a good illustration of the inherent weaknesses of public
opinion polls. Even assuming that the questions were asked using neutral
language and the results were accurately tabulated -- both of which are big
assumptions, by the way -- the best that this sort of poll can provide is a
snapshot of where opinion lies at this moment. The more unsettled and
unusual the overall social/political situation is, the more volatile public
opinion is, always.

     When Cyber News Service reports Zogby's spin or synopsis of these
results, they are imposing an order, meaning or frame on this data that is
scientifically unsound according to the most elementary methodology of
polling.  The most obvious problem is the implicit claim that their results
reveal what Americans (who, exactly?) "favor" is an _ongoing_ situation.
There is no evidence at all of this in a one-time Zogby poll, nor can there
be. Meanwhile, the trend data on opinions concerning civil liberties
collected  by polls over the years remains highly contradictory.

     Everyone has heard of the apocryphal poll in which respondents
supposedly rejected the First Amendment. Yet if that question is posed as
"Do you favor freedom of speech ?" the poll results are completely
different.  When asked this month if roadblocks and car searches are an
acceptable tactic to defeat terrorism, many people will say yes. The
reason? The respondent is stating what he/she thinks should be done with
'them', the terrorists -- a category in which very few people are willing
to place themselves. What that same person will say after having been
intimidated or roughed up by police (or learning what their children,
relatives, neighbors, etc. have been roughed up) is quite a different
matter.

     As far as I can tell from the cited CNS report, the questions, polling
methodology, margin of error and specific results of the  Zogby poll are
presently available. Yet every primer on journalism tells news
organizations that it is irresponsible to report polling data without also
making that type of information available. The Associated Press, for
example, specifically requires that sort of reasonably accurate and
complete information on the poll itself when reporting on any polling data,
though whether  AP always lives up to its own standard is another question.

     If the Zogby organization or Cyber News Service expects to be taken
seriously, they should post the information necessary to make an
independent, informed analysis of the data on which they base their claims.

Regards,
Christopher Simpson




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