more on revolution in Japan

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Naoki Yamamoto <naoki () matatabi com>
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 02:36:00 +0900
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] revolution in Japan


Dr. Farber,

Mr. Ito's essay on Japan was very interesting. As a working class
citizen of Japan, I would like to submit a few comments on it. I write
those comments mostly following my intuition. Please don't take them
too seriously.

I generally agree with Mr. Ito's assessment of the current economic
and political condition of Japan. We really need to make fundamental
changes in many aspects of our society and we'd better have painful
surgery very soon if we want to leave something besides huge debt to
the future generations.

However, I cannot agree with Mr. Ito on how the change happens.  I
have trouble with his use of the phrase "a true democracy" in
particular.

> Japan is no longer a competitive threat to the world. Japan's
> inability to recover from the economic crisis is a threat to the
> global economy. Japan needs build a true democracy to execute the
> reallocation of resources required for a long-term recovery.

I don't know what exactly Professor Lessig meant by "a true democracy"
without looking at the original source, but it seems that the true
democracy in Mr. Ito's essay is based on an American style of
democracy. If that's the case, it would be extremely difficult for
Japan to adapt it. Unless the county loses another war and this time
the occupation forces decide to abolish everything Japanese including
the Emperor system of Japan.

I know the war and Emperor example is bad taste, but I cannot help
mentioning;-). I just want to emphasize that the political system of a
country is deeply intertwined with its history, culture and social
structure.

I believe that if the vast majority of Japanese really want a
revolution or a fundamental change, we can have one without "a true
democracy" as the people of Nagano pref. showed us. However at this
moment, those politicians in the Diet have little to worry about.

It seems to me that people still generally feel that there will be
more to lose than to gain with the drastic changes in our
society. Probably, many of us are just afraid to face the consequence
of being in charge. In such political climate, I think "a true
democracy" per se is not going to facilitate a revolution in Japan. It
will happen only when the difficulties of everyday life outweigh the
fear. In my opinion, a revolution of any kinds is not going to happen
soon.

Secondly, I think the recovery from the economic crisis is a wrong
goal for this country. It's too late now. What we need is to have the
courage to admit that Japan has past its prime. If I want to be
politically correct, I should refer it as "mature".  Japan has to face
much more serious problem than the economic crisis.

The average life expectancy of a person born in this country is the
longest in the world. Although Japan has the lowest infant mortality
rate in the world (Thanks to our universal health care!), a total
fertility rate in Japan is at only 1.39. The population begin to
decrease in the next several years. Moreover, more than 35% will be
over 65 by 2050.

With the huge and rapidly growing aging population, it is inevitable
for Japan to decline as an economic power unless we allow immigration
(Currently, Japan rarely accepts political refugees. A large scale
immigration is unthinkable.). The government will have no choice but
to abandon those policies based on the assumption of economic growth
and expansion with or without a revolution.

I think there must be a way for us to be well and happy without being
one of the top economic power in the world. However, in order to move
to this new direction, Japan needs a strong leader who doesn't afraid
to talk about our gloomy future and is able to work on a long term
plan. I sincerely hope that we can elect such a leader through "a true
democracy", but I have doubt if the democratic processes have the best
chance to find him.

> Japan's core problems are its dysfunctional democracy and the lack
> of diversity. The system is self-perpetuating and is extremely
> resistant to change. It hides behind the powerful and complex
> bureaucracy and the monolithic media that does not represent a
> diversity of opinions.

As regards to the diversity in the media, there are a few bright spots
on the Internet. 2 Channel, a giant discussion forum is a good
example. It has several hundreds discussion boards where people
exchange opinion anonymously on everything from politics to your ISP
(After losing a libel suit, it recently began recording the IP
addressees of message posters.). It became notorious after a teenager
announced his plan to hijack a bus (He stabbed the passengers and
killed one). The noise levels on the 2 Channel are high and probably
unbearable to some, but there are useful information and opinion from
real people available if you learn to ignore the junk. Some
journalists have begun to check this BBS to get the scoop. I think the
traditional media will change and diversify if they want to survive.


Best regards,

Naoki
--
Naoki Yamamoto <naoki () matatabi com> in Yokohama, Japan
Matatabi Digital Industry Report <http://www.matatabi.com>
Gpg Fingerprint = B2A7 2A11 C50B DCC4 83EB  9311 607A FAE9 386B F070
Public Key available from <http://www.matatabi.com/naoki_pubkey.html>


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