Re: [External] Re: Normal ARIN registration service fees for LRSA entrants after 31 Dec 2023 (was: Fwd: [arin-announce] Availability of the Legacy Fee Cap for New LRSA Entrants Ending as of 31 December 2023)

[William Herrin <bill () herrin us>]

On Thu, Sep 15, 2022 at 9:09 PM Rubens Kuhl <rubensk () gmail com> wrote:
> On Fri, Sep 16, 2022 at 11:55 AM William Herrin <bill () herrin us> wrote:
> > No, the best option for me right now is that I just don't participate
> > in RPKI and the system has one less participant. And that's a shame.
>
> That's only true in the current environment where RPKI is only used to
> invalidate bogus routes. When any reachability for RPKI-unknowns is
> lost, that will change.

Hi Rubens,

If you want to bet me on folks ever deciding to discard RPKI-unknowns
down in the legacy class C's I'll be happy to take your money.


> But it will be too late then to join the
> system, so you just sell it for USD 50k and start using NAT.

Since I can convert to the regular ARIN RSA at any time and gain
access to RPKI the concept of "too late" doesn't really exist here.


> Just a calculation: current LRSA fee is USD 150, cap is 25 USD per
> year increase. 2X-Small is USD 500 per year, so it will take 14 years
> to reach that level. Pick your poison, NAT or LRSA.

Yah, except at some point I'll get a /48 bumping my $150/yr AS fee up
to a $250/yr service fee. Then the delta to add my legacy /23 is only
$250. In 4 years, the LRSA fee will be $250, the same amount. But
that's not the break-even point. If I wait one year, its $250*3=$750
vs $150+$175+$200+$225=$750. I break even on the legacy fee schedule
by waiting just one year and then taking the regular annual fee.

Actually, it's a little funkier than that because my AS and /23 are
under different org ids. When I do all this, I'll have to pay the one
time $500 M&A fee or else in year 5 the LRSA for the /23 plus the
$250/yr for IPv6 and an AS will actually cost more than $500/yr and
will keep growing annually to $750.

Anyway, the risk/reward calculation for NOT signing the LRSA right now
is really a no-brainer. It's just unfortunate that means I won't get
an early start on RPKI.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
For hire. https://bill.herrin.us/resume/